US PGA 2016 Betting Tips

Jul 26, 2016

This will be the first time in 11 years that the US PGA will be held at the Lower Course at Baltusrol and the word going round is that they’ve made the course tougher to play, with plenty of punishment for wayward shots off the tee. Deep sand traps, thick rough and plenty of slope running off the greens means this weeks winner will have to be on top their game (the last time it was here Mickelson won with a score of only 4 under par, giving you an idea of the task ahead). I have delved through all the stats to bring you the top tips for this weekend:

Outright

Sometimes you can spend all your time searching for something, just to find it’s been right in front of you all the time. I spent hours trying to find a big priced contender who was going to shock us all this weekend, only to realise the winner elect was at the head of the betting – Dustin Johnson.

First off I have to remind you that sometimes favourites are good value, and its not worth chasing those big prices when you have a very solid and very backable 8/1 leading the way. Dustin Johnson ticks all the boxes when it comes to picking a winner here, and comes into this tournament in frightening form with six top 10 finishes on the bounce (five of those were top five, and two were winners).

Secondly, when looking at past winners of this final major, I noticed a trend towards top players winning with three of the last four winners being ranked top five in the world (Phil Mickelson was ranked 5th when winning her in 2005) – Dustin Johnson is currently ranked number 2 in the world.

Another major trend seemed to be a players finishing position in the ‘World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational’ – three of the last four winners of the US PGA finished in the top five in the  Bridgestone Invitational in the weeks prior to this tournament, and all of the last five winners finished top 15 – Dustin Johnson recently won the Bridgestone Invitational.

STAT – 1903 – last time a non US player won a professional tournament on the lower course at Baltusrol golf course.

The final piece in this US PGA jigsaw is DJs length off the tee. The 17th here is a monster 649 yard par 5, and not many players other than Johnson will get anywhere near it in two shots. This is followed by another par 5 at the 18th, and you would definitely want to have backed the bombers coming into these final two. On top of this there is a 503 yard par 4 to contest on the front nine, and plenty of long holes over the 18. Overall this course is playing at over 7000 yards this weekend, compared with Troon which played at around 6200 yards two weeks ago in the Open  – Dustin Johnson currently leads the way in the PGA tour in terms of driving length.

Back Dustin Johnson Outright – 8/1 with Paddy Power 

First Round leader

This isn’t a market I usually get involved with as it is difficult to get an angle on, and oftentimes there is a surprise leader after the first 18 (good for big prices, bad for tipping!). This tournament though is different, and that is all down to one thing – the weather!

New Jersey can be a humid place at this time of the year, and as I write this there is rain showers and thunder forecast for the latter stages of the tournament. Day 1 though is a different story, and if the weather forecast is accurate then Thursday promises to be the  hottest day of the tournament, with players teeing off in the second half of groups playing in heat in excess of 35 degrees. That may not sound too bad, but given the choice I’m sure the players would rather be teeing off in the morning when the heat is a manageable 20 – 23 degrees, and not a breath of wind will be found. Another thing worth noting is that due to the way the players tee off in this tournament there are no players teeing off between 9am and 12.15pm, meaning the second half of players will be teeing off just as the heat peaks.

I have looked through the first couple of groups to tee off, and the stand out names are Mickelson and Snedeker. Mickelson seems happy to leave behind him the disappointment of a 2nd place finish at the Open, and has said this week that he believes that he still has some big wins left in him, whilst Snedeker has been slowly getting on with his business this year, clocking up six top finishes and sitting 5th on the FedEx Cup Ranking.

Mickelson 1st round leader – 30/1 with Betfred 

Snedeker 1st round leader – 66/1 with Stan James  

Selected Others

Mickleson W/O Day, McIlroy & Johnson – 12/1 with SkyBet 

Snedeker Outright – 60/1 with BoyleSport E/W

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